12 February 2025

Good morning. From border politics to budget battles, Kenya's leadership landscape is shifting faster than a Nairobi traffic jam. Today's newsletter unpacks how President Ruto's ID policy shake-up meets parliamentary power plays, while Deputy President Kindiki finds his voice in Mt Kenya's political arena. Meanwhile, the next generation of Kenyan talent is eyeing greener pastures abroad - but at what cost?

Let’s dive in.

GOVERNMENT

Kenya Ends Extra ID Checks for Border Residents

President William Ruto's decision to remove special vetting requirements for ID issuance in border counties marks a significant shift in Kenya's national identity policy, sparking both praise and concern across the political spectrum.

The new policy aims to address decades of discrimination against border communities who have historically faced additional hurdles when applying for national identification cards. Under previous requirements, residents in border regions underwent extra scrutiny and lengthy vetting processes that their counterparts in other parts of the country didn't face.

Governors from border counties have embraced the change, with many calling for its expansion to all border regions. They argue that the previous system unfairly targeted their constituents and violated the principle of equal citizenship.

However, the policy shift hasn't been without its critics. Trans Nzoia Governor George Natembeya has raised security concerns, warning that simplified ID requirements could be exploited by terrorist groups. He advocates for maintaining some security measures while streamlining the process.

Supporters of the new policy dismiss these concerns as politically motivated, pointing out that standard security protocols remain in place. They argue that the change simply removes discriminatory barriers while maintaining necessary safeguards.

The impact of this policy change extends beyond administrative convenience. For border communities that have long felt marginalized, it represents a step toward full recognition as equal citizens. As the policy rolls out, its implementation will be closely watched by both security experts and human rights advocates.

This development comes as part of President Ruto's broader agenda to address historical inequalities and promote national unity. The government maintains that equal access to identification documents is crucial for economic participation and social inclusion.

HEADLINES

🗳️ Kenyan MPs are heading to Addis Ababa for Raila Odinga's African Union Commission chairperson bid. The high-stakes election, scheduled for this week, has drawn support from several East African nations while West African countries show mixed responses. Raila, expressing confidence in his decades of experience, has pledged to accept the outcome while emphasizing his vision for continental unity. The delegation's presence underscores Kenya's diplomatic push for the AU's top leadership position, despite controversial remarks from some political figures back home.

🏛️ Deputy President Kithure Kindiki marks his first 100 days in office with a bold stance against regional political control. The traditionally soft-spoken DP has evolved into a more assertive leader, directly confronting Rigathi Gachagua over Mt Kenya politics. Kindiki's warning to "run you out of town" and dismissal of political kingpins signals a significant shift in Mt Kenya's power dynamics, as he establishes his own distinct political identity through direct citizen engagement rather than traditional political intermediaries.

⚖️ A power struggle unfolds in Kenya's National Assembly as court declares Azimio the majority party. The ruling, which could reshape parliamentary leadership and committee memberships, faces strong resistance from Speaker Wetangula who insists courts lack jurisdiction in parliamentary matters. While Azimio's Junet Mohamed has already claimed the Majority Leader position, Kenya Kwanza MPs dismiss the ruling's practical effects. The controversy deepens with MP Havi challenging Speaker Wetangula's concurrent role as Ford Kenya party leader, highlighting the complex intersection of political and legislative authority in Kenya's parliament.

💰 The Cabinet has approved a trimmed KES 4.2 trillion budget for the 2025/26 fiscal year. The revised budget, slashed by KES 200B from the initial proposal, allocates KES 2.6T to recurrent expenditure and KES 850B to development projects. With revenue projected at KES 3T, the budget maintains a deficit of 4.8% of GDP. Key sectors receiving substantial funding include education at KES 600B, infrastructure at KES 500B, while counties are set to receive KES 450B in equitable share. The IMF has endorsed these austerity measures, with the budget scheduled for parliamentary tabling by March 2025.

JOBS

The Great Escape: How Kenya's Talent Migration Threatens Economic Growth

Kenya faces a looming economic crisis as half of its students express a strong desire to study abroad, signaling a potential brain drain that could severely impact the nation's growth trajectory. Recent surveys paint a concerning picture of talent migration that extends beyond education into various sectors of the economy.

The exodus is particularly pronounced among young professionals, with 50% of students actively seeking educational opportunities in the United States, United Kingdom, and Canada. This trend is driven by a combination of factors, including perceived superior education quality and better job prospects abroad.

Meanwhile, those remaining in Kenya face significant challenges in workplace readiness. A growing skills gap, particularly in digital and technological competencies, has emerged as a critical concern. The current education system struggles to align with emerging job market needs, leaving many graduates underprepared for modern workplace demands.

The private sector, which typically drives economic growth, faces an additional challenge: declining interest from graduates. Young professionals increasingly favor public sector and NGO positions, citing job security and better benefits as primary motivators. This preference could potentially stifle innovation and economic dynamism in the private sector.

More alarming is the rise of fraudulent overseas job schemes targeting desperate job seekers. Recent cases highlight the dark side of talent migration, with reports of Kenyans falling victim to scam operations in Southeast Asia. In one notable incident, 23 Kenyans were lured abroad with false promises, only to face exploitation and abuse.

The implications for Kenya's economy are significant. Key sectors, particularly healthcare and technology, are experiencing severe talent shortages as skilled professionals seek opportunities abroad. Without immediate intervention to retain talent and create attractive local opportunities, Kenya risks compromising its economic growth potential.

Experts suggest that addressing this crisis requires a multi-pronged approach: modernizing education systems, creating more competitive local job opportunities, and strengthening partnerships between academia and industry. The government must also enhance protection mechanisms for Kenyans seeking opportunities abroad to prevent exploitation.

ACROSS THE COUNTY

• NAIROBI: Court freezes high-rise developments in Kileleshwa. The Environment and Land Court has issued strict orders limiting building heights to 16 floors in the Rhapta Road and Kileleshwa areas, affecting eight development projects. The landmark ruling directs Nairobi County and NEMA to enforce these restrictions, citing environmental concerns and sustainable urban development guidelines. This decision marks a significant shift in the capital's urban planning approach, with immediate implications for ongoing and future construction projects in these upscale neighborhoods.
• KAKAMEGA: Mumias Sugar Factory's revival faces major roadblocks amid bitter legal battles and operational challenges. The once-thriving miller is now in crisis, struggling with inadequate cane supply and competition from cheaper imports. An intense ownership dispute between Rai and Sarrai groups has escalated to the courts, while local MCAs clash with factory management over President Ruto's recent directive. Political interference and mutual accusations of mismanagement continue to derail recovery efforts, leaving local farmers caught in the crossfire.
• MANDERA: The African Development Bank has approved crucial funding for the El Wak–Rhamu road upgrade. This approval marks a significant milestone for the Horn of Africa Gateway Development Project, which had faced delays due to funding constraints. The project will enhance regional connectivity between Kenya and Somalia, strengthening the region's transport network.

ONE-LINERS

• Starting March 2025, Airtel Money users will be able to send money directly to M-PESA accounts, while M-PESA users will gain the ability to pay at Airtel till numbers—a change implemented following a Central Bank directive on mobile money interoperability.
• Co-operative Bank has reduced its base lending rate from 15% to 14.5%, becoming the first major bank to cut rates in 2025. The change takes effect February 15, 2025.
• The Directorate of Criminal Investigations (DCI) Kenya regained control of its social media accounts after hackers compromised and posted unauthorized content on both platforms.